Formula 1 Picks & Predictions
F1 2026 predictions - championship picks and season betting analysis
The 2026 Formula 1 season has delivered a new champion, with Kimi Antonelli clinching the Drivers' Championship at the Mexico City GP to become the youngest-ever F1 champion at 20. Mercedes has also wrapped up the Constructors' title, but there's still plenty to play for across the final 3 races in Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi.
With the titles decided, the battle for 2nd place in the Drivers' standings is wide open, and Max Verstappen, George Russell, Lewis Hamilton, Charles Leclerc and Lando Norris are separated by just 33 points. You can make your picks on race winners, podium finishers and the remaining outright markets here at Stake Sportsbook. Follow our predictions and analysis on the latest odds to make the best informed bets at Stake for the final races of the season.
Las Vegas F1 race Predictions and Picks
Max Verstappen has won the Las Vegas F1 GP in 2 of 3 races. His late-season form makes him one of the favourites going into the race. Red Bull and Verstappen excel in heavy braking zones like Turn 11, but he’ll be vulnerable on the 1.9 km Strip.
We predict Mercedes will have the advantage at the GP Las Vegas. Its power could allow Antonelli and Russell to outpace their rivals. They should have no problems overtaking on the high-speed straights. However, Hamilton and Leclerc could be contenders. The Ferrari has shown excellent straight-line aerodynamic efficiency and low-speed mechanical grip. If they can get their tyre management under control, they could challenge.
Here’s our final podium prediction for the F1 race in Las Vegas:
Antonelli
Leclerc
Verstappen
Who won the 2026 F1 Drivers' Championship?
Kimi Antonelli is the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion. The Mercedes driver sealed the title with a podium at the Mexico City GP, with 4 races still to go. At 20 years old, he beat Sebastian Vettel's record to become the youngest champion in F1 history, and he's the first Italian to win the title since Alberto Ascari in 1953.
Antonelli has won 9 of the 20 races so far this season, including Monaco, Monza and the US GP in Austin. He's still the driver to beat in the final 3 races, especially on the long straights of Las Vegas where the Mercedes power unit gives him the edge.
Who will finish 2nd in the Drivers' standings: our pick
With the title decided, the fight for 2nd place is the most competitive outright market left this season. After the São Paulo GP, Max Verstappen is 2nd on 279 points, ahead of George Russell (262), Lewis Hamilton (261), Charles Leclerc (249) and Lando Norris (246).
Our pick to finish 2nd is Verstappen. He's the form driver of the second half of the season, winning 3 of the last 5 races, and he has won the Las Vegas GP twice. If you're looking for value, Russell is just 17 points behind in the same car as the champion, and Hamilton is only 1 point further back after setting the fastest lap in Mexico City.
Who won the 2026 F1 Constructors' Championship?
Mercedes won the 2026 Constructors' Championship at the São Paulo GP, the team's 9th Constructors' title. Antonelli's 9 wins and George Russell's 3 victories have given Mercedes 652 points, well clear of Ferrari in 2nd on 510.
The battle to watch now is for 3rd place. Red Bull is on 415 points, just 17 ahead of McLaren on 398. McLaren has the stronger driver pairing, with Norris and Oscar Piastri both scoring well, and its Mercedes power unit should suit Las Vegas. However, we're backing Red Bull to hold on, as Verstappen's recent form has been enough to keep the team ahead on his own.
Circuit types and which teams to back at each
Throughout the F1 season, teams travel to different race locations all over the world. Each location features a unique track, offering its own special challenges and considerations to the teams and their drivers. Different F1 circuits favour different car setups and styles of racing, which is why the car with the most power isn’t necessarily always going to win. Before making your F1 predictions, it’s important to understand the specific track types and how they play into the strengths and weaknesses of each team.
Power circuits
Power circuits, such as Monza, Red Bull Ring and Spa, feature long straights and short, slow corners. When racing on these circuits, the car’s performance is tied to its power, acceleration and top speed. This season, Mercedes has a clear power advantage over the other teams, so its drivers tend to fare better on these tracks. While Baku City and the Las Vegas Strip are both street circuits, they also feature extremely long straights, which give teams with a lot of power the edge.
High-downforce tracks
High-downforce tracks have shorter straights and a higher emphasis on corners. Downforce is created by the car’s shape and wings, with aerodynamic force pushing the car into the ground, increasing grip. Cars with better aerodynamics, such as the Ferrari this season, can take corners at higher speeds. Examples of high-downforce tracks include street circuits such as the Circuit de Monaco and Marina Bay in Singapore. In addition, there’s Hungaroring in Hungary and the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya in Spain. Lusail in Qatar, which hosts the second-to-last race of the season, also rewards a strong aero package with its fast, flowing corners.
Season value bets and long-range F1 markets worth watching
Fastest lap and podium finish trends in 2026
So far this season, Antonelli has set the fastest lap in 8 of the 20 races. Leclerc has 4, while Verstappen, Norris, Hamilton and Russell have 2 each. Antonelli has the fastest car, but with the right strategy and conditions, other drivers can set faster times.
When betting on the fastest lap time, it’s important to consider the track characteristics. On circuits like Monaco, where overtaking is more difficult, the fastest lap time will usually go to the front-runner.
You should also think about the tyre strategy that each team uses during the race. Drivers will typically post faster lap times on fresh, soft-compound tyres. If a team typically saves a set of soft tyres for the final laps of the race, they have a good chance of setting the fastest lap.
If you’re betting live on the fastest lap time, you can also consider possible safety car restarts and red flags, as well as the weather conditions during the race.
Mercedes has been the dominant team this season, with Antonelli winning 9 of the 20 races and Russell adding 3 more. Verstappen has been the form driver in recent weeks, winning 3 of the last 5 races, while Norris has also won 3 races this year. Hamilton and Leclerc have each won once for Ferrari.
If you’re betting on which driver will finish on the podium, consider the track characteristics and driver history on that circuit. You should also look at their recent form and what kind of strategy their team uses during the race.
Constructor head-to-head markets for the final races of the season
F1 outright betting markets let you predict end-of-season outcomes such as the final positions in the Drivers' and Constructors' Championships.
If you're looking for value in the odds, the Constructors' Championship head-to-head markets are a great option. For example, you can bet on whether or not the Haas F1 team will finish ahead of Audi. There's more value here because just 3 points separate them with 3 races to go, and it could still go either way. Oliver Bearman has picked up quite a lot of points for Haas, so we're backing them to finish ahead of Audi.
Where to bet on F1 in 2026
You can bet on the F1 right here at Stake Sportsbook, with all the latest odds for upcoming Grand Prix races and F1 outright betting available too. F1 live betting is also available, and you can benefit from all of our sports betting promotions. Learn more about sports betting and how to place F1 bets on Stake in our F1 betting guide.
Make sure you follow our responsible betting guidelines while making your picks and predictions to stay Stake Smart.